Padres vs Reds Prediction - MLB Picks 6/30/23

Cincinnati Reds (43-38) vs San Diego Padres (37-44)

Game Info: Friday, June 30, 2023 at 5:10 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Graham Ashcraft (3-6) (7.17) vs Seth Lugo (3-4) (4.01)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds +110 / San Diego Padres -130 --- Over/Under: 11.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The San Diego Padres will play the Cincinnati Reds in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres are 37-44 this season and they have lost five Games in a row. San Diego is coming off of a series loss to the Pirates, where they lost all three Games. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average this season. The Padres offense has scored 344 runs with a .233 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Juan Soto is batting .268 with 14 home runs and 41 RBI’s for the Padres. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Seth Lugo, who is 3-4 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 51.2 innings pitched this year. 

Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 43-38 this season and they have won 14 of their last 17 Games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series win against Baltimore, where they won two out of three Games. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 5.01 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a .266 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 402 runs with a .257 batting average and a .335 on base percentage this year. Spencer Steer is batting .279 with 12 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Reds. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Graham Ashcraft, who is 3-6 with a 7.17 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP over 69.0 innings pitched this season.

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Trends

San Diego is 1-4 in their last 5 Games against the NL Central and 0-5 in their last 5 Games. The over is 5-0-1 in San Diego’s last 6 Game one’s of a series. Cincinnati is 5-1 in their last 6 Games against the NL West and 17-5 in their last 22 Games. The over is 5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 6 Games. San Diego is 16-5 in these two teams last 21 head to head meetings.

Pick

San Diego comes into this Game playing very poorly and they have lost five Games in a row, while Cincinnati is playing their best baseball of the season. Cincinnati is starting Graham Ashcraft, who has allowed 19 earned runs in his last three starts (10.2 IP). San Diego is starting Seth Lugo, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Ashcraft has had some issues lately, but I do not like how San Diego has looked at all. Take the Reds here. 

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