Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Tuesday, December 11

Unders can certainly make bettors a little uncomfortable, but I'm still firing up a pair of them for today's NHL player props piece.

The schedule features four games, and there isn’t a single divisional matchup to be found. In early action, Toronto Maple Leafs captain John Tavares needs a pair of points against his former team to reach 1,000 for his career. 

The Dallas Stars are a sizable home favorite in the NHL odds in their Game against the Detroit Red Wings, and the slate wraps up with the Calgary Flames visiting the Colorado Avalanche. 

Here are my free NHL picks for Monday, December 11.

NHL prop picks and best bets for December 11

  • Heiskanen Under 0.5 points (+115 at Bet99)
  • Hanifin Under 1.5 shots (+150 at Bet99)
  • Bertuzzi Over 2.5 shots (+125 at Bet99)

Picks made on December 11 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets

Prop bet #1: Zero for Miro

Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen has struggled to follow up last year’s breakout offensive showing. His 2.17 points per 60 minutes ranked eighth among regular blueliners in 2022-23, but the Big D defenseman is down to a 37th-ranked 1.46 mark through the first 26 games this season.

Additionally, he has three multi-point showings, so Heiskanen has missed the scoresheet entirely in 15 of 26. As a result, I value the +115 Bet99 odds that Heiskanen will fail to register a point against the Detroit Red Wings on Monday.

The Detroit defense ranks 18th in my ratings, and the Wings have been inconsistent. They enter Monday’s Game with 11 goals against across consecutive losses but allowed 14 total over the prior seven. 

Still, while this isn’t a dreamy matchup, my numbers are showing a small edge. I also expect more attention to detail from the Red Wings on Monday, and taking him to not register a point is the best way to go at Miro Heiskanen's odds.

Bet99 price My projection My price Expected value
+115 0.64 +107 4%

Miro Heiskanen prop: Under 0.5 points (+115 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #2: Avs cool Hanifin

Even with the Colorado Avalanche reeling along a 1-3-2 run, they continue to drive five-on-five possession and suppress opponent’s shots. The Avs rank sixth in Corsi For percentage (53.3%) and 10th in shots against per 60 minutes (28.1) at 5-on-5.

I also value the Calgary Flames playing a similar brand. They respectively rank seventh in CF% (52.9%) while allowing the fourth-fewest 5-on-5 shots per 60 (27.3). This could quickly become a low-event game, which is always a plus for Under bettors.

Turning to Noah Hanifin's odds, his Unders are intriguing as I’m anticipating him having to spend the bulk of his night matched up against Colorado’s top players in his usual shut-down role alongside partner Chris Tanev — another plus.

It’s also worth highlighting Hanifin’s shots per 60 (4.63) are down from last year’s 5.76 mark despite his 13.41 attempts per 60 being higher than his 2022-23 rate (12.5). Over the coming weeks I’d expect the gap to shrink, but it’s a notable downtick in shooting efficiency and part of the explanation for why his shots per game are also down from 2.17  to 1.77 across the two years.

Finally, Hanifin has failed to top this 1.5-shot total in five of his past eight Games.

Bet99 price My projection My price Expected value
+150 1.77 +115 16%

Noah Hanifin prop: Under 1.5 shots (+150 at Bet99)

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Prop bet #3: Isles boost for Bertuzzi

Toronto Maple Leafs winger Tyler Bertuzzi has posted a career-high 8.22 shots and 15.52 attempts per 60 minutes this season, and he lands in a cushy matchup against the New York Islanders tonight.

The Isles have surrendered the second most shots (35.2) and most attempts (71.8) per 60 minutes, and also rank 29th in my defense ratings. Add ranking 31st in five-on-five Corsi For percentage (44.8%), and Tyler Bertuzzi's odds surrounding his shot props are showing good value.

I also envision statistical correction coming in short order for the John Tavares-Mitch Marner-Bertuzzi line. The trio have combined for a mediocre 50.5 CF% at 5-on-5, while Tavares and Bertuzzi clicked at 57.7% before Marner joined them. Marner sports a career 2.0 relative CF%, and positive regression is ahead of this season’s -0.7 mark and his 49.4 individual CF%.

Bet99 price My projection My price Expected value
+125 2.6 -105 15%

Tyler Bertuzzi prop: Over 2.5 shots (+125 at Bet99)

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